When do used guitars hit bottom price?

[Jim in TC]

Originally Posted by Dwight

50% of MSRP or 20% off street price new is typical for excellent condition.

Beyond that, it's mostly condition, desirability and sellers motivation or desperation that determines selling price. I'm thinking you're never going to get a nice D-18 for $700.

I got one for just over $700...but it was in 1983 (for a 1970 model)

[musicman1951]

Originally Posted by Dwight

50% of MSRP or 20% off street price new is typical for excellent condition.

Beyond that, it's mostly condition, desirability and sellers motivation or desperation that determines selling price. I'm thinking you're never going to get a nice D-18 for $700.

I agree. If you really want a low price you also have to want all the dings and scratches.

[Rev Roy]

Originally Posted by Dwight

50% of MSRP or 20% off street price new is typical for excellent condition.

Beyond that, it's mostly condition, desirability and sellers motivation or desperation that determines selling price. I'm thinking you're never going to get a nice D-18 for $700.

Exactly...which means if you buy the guitar for 60% off MSRP and keep it in excellent shape you won’t take too much of a haircut. In the last few weeks I’ve sold a 2017 D-28 in a matter of hours and a 2016 D-18 in just a few days, both on Reverb. Both sold for about 50% of MSRP...

[rokdog49]

Originally Posted by Rev Roy

Exactly...which means if you buy the guitar for 60% off MSRP and keep it in excellent shape you won’t take too much of a haircut. In the last few weeks I’ve sold a 2017 D-28 in a matter of hours and a 2016 D-18 in just a few days, both on Reverb. Both sold for about 50% of MSRP...

Which is what I said earlier on the D18 ...somewhere in the $1500 area,not $1700 or more.

From my experience they hit bottom a few years after the initial sale and when they've accumulated some warts. But even so, the minute you buy a guitar new you've lost a lot of money on resale instantly. I've had the misfortune of having to sell a few guitars that were really new and the carnage is always pretty significant. Even if the guitar is perfect and you sell it the day after you bought it new, expect to get 60% of what you paid, and even then only if it's a Gibson or Martin (or a popular Taylor, SCGC or Collings model). If you have something esoteric expect to be even more disappointed, usually.

[Mystery123]

Originally Posted by Frozen Rat

From my experience they hit bottom a few years after the initial sale and when they've accumulated some warts. But even so, the minute you buy a guitar new you've lost a lot of money on resale instantly. I've had the misfortune of having to sell a few guitars that were really new and the carnage is always pretty significant. Even if the guitar is perfect and you sell it the day after you bought it new, expect to get 60% of what you paid, and even then only if it's a Gibson or Martin (or a popular Taylor, SCGC or Collings model). If you have something esoteric expect to be even more disappointed, usually.

The bolded line in your reply is exactly my question.
the minute you buy a guitar new you've lost a lot of money on resale instantly.

You lose money as soon as you buy many things but that's not an infinite loop.
It'll have to settle somewhere otherwise it'll cheaper than dirty diaper after few resales.
Let's say you bought a guitar for $1500, new or used.
New will depreciate quicker as now it's used and used will/may depreciate a lot less (assuming it won't go to collectible/vintage status as price will go up).
Assuming resale value is dropped, you may sell it for $1200 after 6 months.
That means the guitar will have $0 value after 4 sales.
But it doesn't work that way.
Maybe the guitar will always hang around $900 no matter how many resales it will have.
That's what I was getting at when I thought about hitting bottom price.

[numb fingertips]

When something about that particular guitar is really undesirable. Or if the seller is desperate or clueless.

[Mandobart]

I think used prices will drop as us baby boomers age out and flood the market with vintage and custom instruments, AND the market for musical instruments in general continues to drop. In 10 - 20 years the market value WILL drop in real buying power. Hard to say what actual used prices will be due to inflation, interest rates, etc.

[Ed-in-Ohio]

Originally Posted by rokdog49

...snip... A very fair price on a 2012 or later built D18 in excellent condition would be $1500- $1600 max. ...snip...

Bingo! and the "magic number" for a used, standard D-18 or J-45 has been $1500 for about the past decade. So, although I don't think the used market will bottom out much more, it does seem to be very steady and resistant to inflation.

As a side note, the continued, on-going improvement in the quality of entry and mid-tier acoustic guitars certainly helps keep the prices of used guitars in check.

[Steve DeRosa]

The day I sell/trade them...

[Rmz76]

Originally Posted by Mystery123

Not counting when they get vintage/collectible status or once in a lifetime deal.
Also, not taking entry level guitars in scope as they are all over the place.

For example, Taylor 414ce has mrsp of $2299.
Used ones are as low as $1100, most at $1500 range at various online sellers.

Will it ever go to $700 range in good condition, not for parts or cracked etc... or will it always float above $1k?
What's the bottom price that used guitars usually hit?
25-40% of msrp?

Similarly, new Martin D-18 has msrp of $3k but sellers sell it for $2.5k.
Used ones are from $1300.
Is there a possibility that 10 year old D-18 will be around $700 all over or it's not gonna happen?

Trying to figure out when is good time to buy used guitars.

I would start the depreciation from new street price which is almost always lower than both MSRP and the MAP (Minimum Advertised Price). Example

2018 Martin D-18
MSRP: $3099
MAP: $2459 (everyday low price you see Guitar Center and others advertise)
Street: $2159 (you can usually negotiate about 12% off MAP)

So one problem with used depreciation is all in the perspective of which of the three numbers above is the starting point. In my mind the real starting point when considering depriciation is the street price. Customers who paid more could have gotten a better deal, but that's not the problem of the would be buyer of the used guitar. I can't count how many times I've seen Craigslist ads were people would put up an add for a guitar that I know goes street for around $2000 and claim "this is a $3000 guitar new" or something along those lines... Good luck to them, perhaps they eventually find buyers.

Assuming Excellent condition, depreciation usually stops around 20% (20% of new street is what I'm seeing most often, it's really 10-25% depending on brand, it seems Taylor guitars in general hold value worse than Gibson and Martin models). Search Reverb.com and look at the numbers for a used D18 Standard (any year) and you'll see that's about right.. $1750-$1850 seems to be the asking price of a slightly used D18 in excellent condition.

Year doesn't matter unless the model has gone through some major upgrades (the D18 did go through a big change a few years back, but older models don't seem to have been impacted much). Condition of the instrument will impact what you're able to get and this accounts for the prices being all over the place. "Good condition" brings a lot less than "Excellent" and "Like new".

I prefer to buy used in "Very Good" condition, where the guitar is mechanically in excellent condition but has taken a few nicks and scratches and made it a great bargain. If you want to get the most for your dollar when buying used this is the way to go.

It's not true that USA built instruments always hold their value better than foreign built instruments. You have to look at that depreciation percentage. Going by that number the Epiphone AJ45ME and Ibanez AC240 seem to be getting closer to their new price at resale than many USA models. The trend seems to be that it's very much about what models are popular, not country of origin or brand.That said, you can't go wrong with the one of the historic iconic models (D28. D18, 000-18, J-45, J-200, etc...) there will always be a demand.

[guitar george]

I have bought new and I have bought used. I really get interested in guitars that are about 10 or more years old, but, I'm not too keen on the really old ones.

[Seagull S6]

Best time to buy? When you find a good deal. I Got my grand daughter a used righty S-6 with a gig bag, strap and Capo for $139 at a pawn shop that was having a stock reduction sale. It was hiding on the wall with a bunch of bottom feeder Chinese guitars.

So really at any price point you have to be ready to jump when you find a smoken deal. Remember that ANYTHING is only worth as much as what someone is willing to pay for it.

Originally Posted by Rmz76

I would start the depreciation from new street price...

2018 Martin D-18
MSRP: $3099
MAP: $2459 (everyday low price you see Guitar Center and others advertise)
Street: $2159 (you can usually negotiate about 12% off MAP)

... $1750-$1850 seems to be the asking price of a slightly used D18 in excellent condition.

Your post demonstrates why it is so difficult to get a handle on used prices - too few people know the real “best” prices on new instruments. You should be able to get very close to 40% off MSRP on a new D-18, which is $300 less than your estimate of Street. I can buy a half dozen BRAND NEW before 9:00 AM tomorrow for the price you’re suggesting for used ones.

To answer the OP’s question, except for wear and tear, there is usually no depreciation beyond that of the initial purchase. Another way of putting it, a used 2012 D-18 and a used 2017 D-18 would be valued the same, assuming they’re in equally good condition.

[Denny B]

Originally Posted by Todd Yates

Your post demonstrates why it is so difficult to get a handle on used prices - too few people know the real “best” prices on new instruments. You should be able to get very close to 40% off MSRP on a new D-18, which is $300 less than your estimate of Street. I can buy a half dozen BRAND NEW before 9:00 AM tomorrow for the price you’re suggesting for used ones.

To answer the OP’s question, except for wear and tear, there is usually no depreciation beyond that of the initial purchase. Another way of putting it, a used 2012 D-18 and a used 2017 D-18 would be valued the same, assuming they’re in equally good condition.

THIS ^^^^ needs to be stated over and over...far too many folks are way out of line with their asking prices for their used Martins, because they didn't do their homework, and paid far too much to the wrong dealer...

Thank you, Todd...