The Market Has No Idea

[jab.phila]

I'm looking at Kent Hamblin's guitars on Reverb and they are running from $2,200 to over $10,000. All in really good condition, some of which have sat on AGF for even lower prices. All I can infer from this insane spread is that the market has no idea how much his guitars are worth.

Am I missing something? Have you seen this happen to other high level, low volume independent builders? Is the sample size too small? The number of players who have played them too limited? What's up?

[nedray]

I think you answered your own question. With well-known consumer brands flooding the used market at bargain prices, a little known independent builder has an upward climb to get noticed. There goes your price point.

[RP]

I would think that a custom build would have specific touches as to size, wood choice(s), binding, inlay, scale, number of frets etc ordered by the buyer. Is it possible that those who are in the market for a custom build have their own idea as to the specifics that they want so that a used one, no matter how awesome, might not be appealing to someone else?

[arwhite]

The market always knows what something is worth. You might not agree with it, but by definition it knows.

[Ted @ LA Guitar Sales]

Originally Posted by arwhite

The market always knows what something is worth. You might not agree with it, but by definition it knows.

Absolutely!

[CycleBob]

Originally Posted by arwhite

The market always knows what something is worth. You might not agree with it, but by definition it knows.

This. Well I guess the market doesn’t “know” or not know anything, but it definitely establishes what things are worth: what people are willing to pay.

[fitness1]

The 2200.00 Hamblin is one of his very early instruments (although he had tons of experience building for others previously) it's maple which isn't generally a quick seller, and it's being sold by someone with no previous sales on Reverb. Another couple things - a 14 year old guitar listed as mint with no other reference to condition (and the pic of the headstock doesn't appear mint) and the fact that he's no longer active building.

I'm my opinion, it's probably pretty accurately priced.

[Mr. Jelly]

The evidence from the questions and answers on this forum suggests that allot of guitar players have some knowledge of the different brands and options of guitars but not that much experience with them. Selling an unknown with out some marketing behind it is going to impact the all knowing righteous market.

[Goodallboy]

Originally Posted by jab.phila

I'm looking at Kent Hamblin's guitars on Reverb and they are running from $2,200 to over $10,000. All in really good condition, some of which have sat on AGF for even lower prices. All I can infer from this insane spread is that the market has no idea how much his guitars are worth.

Am I missing something? Have you seen this happen to other high level, low volume independent builders? Is the sample size too small? The number of players who have played them too limited? What's up?

Knowing what the asking price of a guitar is a far cry from knowing what the market will actually pay, don't you think?

The market is always right, and markets change. The change doesn't negate what the market decides is correct, the market decides what the change will be and when.

One builder isn't indicative of anything substantive as it relates to guitar pricing.

[Don54]

The asking price on used instruments is not an indication of the market. What people actually pay for used instruments is an indication of the market.

The two can be totally different.

[zombywoof]

Going decades back to Economics 101, market price and market value are two different things. Value can influence price but without demand can not alone determine it. You can sit there all day long an believe that some hard to find finish option increases the value of a guitar but if nobody else agrees then it may be a hard sell.

Market price is simply what a buyer will willingly pay and what a seller will accept in which local supply and demand comes into play. Where I used to live one of the guitar shops I frequented knew it was not going to be easy to sell a 1940s Martin D-18, a Collings or a Bourgeois they had gotten in locally. So they had two choices. Either sit on it until they took it to one of the guitar shows where there was a market or drop the price significantly to try and move it locally. I have seen guitars I could have bought at a certain price that ended up going to one the big sexy stores but now with a price of $2K more than I could have bought it for.

[fazool]

Originally Posted by jab.phila

... the market has no idea how much his guitars are worth.

Am I missing something? ...

Yes completely.

"worth" is, by definition, what someone is willing to pay for something at that time.

If the market is willing to spend $10000, then an item is worth $10,000
If the market is only will to spend $100, then the item is worth $100

Worth is how much it sells for, not how much you like it.

[RP]

Maybe it's just my ignorance as to business and economics, but I'm having a hard time understanding this concept of "market." It's being presented as a unified, almost single voice, but that seems unlikely in my mind. I own a revoiced Taylor 714 and 814 which I dearly love. I was fortunate to find one languishing for several years in a store online and the other was a special order. Since both lack the requisite cutaway and electronics, I would posit that "the market" would put less value on them than I did. By the same token, I'm sure that there are others out there who would put value on these particular guitars because of what they lack i.e. factory electronics and cutaway. Is "the market" simply a pseudonym for the majority of people??? Surely THE MARKET doesn't speak for everybody - clearly it doesn't speak for me....

[Greg Ballantyne]

Originally Posted by RP

Maybe it's just my ignorance as to business and economics, but I'm having a hard time understanding this concept of "market." It's being presented as a unified, almost single voice, but that seems unlikely in my mind. I own a revoiced Taylor 714 and 814 which I dearly love. I was fortunate to find one languishing for several years in a store online and the other was a special order. Since both lack the requisite cutaway and electronics, I would posit that "the market" would put less value on them than I did. By the same token, I'm sure that there are others out there who would put value on these particular guitars because of what they lack i.e. factory electronics and cutaway. Is "the market" simply a pseudonym for the majority of people??? Surely THE MARKET doesn't speak for everybody - clearly it doesn't speak for me....

The Market is what it is - like the weather. You may not like it, agree with it, or any of that, but it still IS. It is the accumulation or sum total of human actions with regard to value. No humans, no value - ain't nobody else playing or buying guitars.......or anything else.

[fazool]

Originally Posted by RP

Maybe it's just my ignorance as to business and economics, but I'm having a hard time understanding this concept of "market." It's being presented as a unified, almost single voice, but that seems unlikely in my mind. I own a revoiced Taylor 714 and 814 which I dearly love. I was fortunate to find one languishing for several years in a store online and the other was a special order. Since both lack the requisite cutaway and electronics, I would posit that "the market" would put less value on them than I did. By the same token, I'm sure that there are others out there who would put value on these particular guitars because of what they lack i.e. factory electronics and cutaway. Is "the market" simply a pseudonym for the majority of people??? Surely THE MARKET doesn't speak for everybody - clearly it doesn't speak for me....

So the word "market" is very imprecise. I think of the word market to mean a pool of potential buyers and one that will pay the price.

So, lets say I am selling a car for $10000. There is a pool of 25 buyers. No one find the car worth that much to them, so they won't pay that price. There is one buyer who will pay $10000 because the car is worth that much to them. So, they pay what the car is worth to them and the seller (me) gets the $10000 because that was the car's worth or value.

Now, another person sells the same car but the pool of 24 remaining buyers already decided no one wants to pay $10000 so he next higher paying buyer sets the value because that's what the seller can get for it.

It's much more complicated that than because the pools are huge populations and dynamics like desirability change values every moment.

In addition you can get into un-spoken bidding wars which will drive the price up and then you have supply and demand influences exacerbating this effect.

Basically, the bottom line is value and worth are only defined by what someone is willing to pay for something.

Say I have a sentimental trinket I would pay $5000 to have. No one else would pay more that $2 for it. Well I could probably buy it for $3 but it's worth more to ME than that. Conversely when I go to sell that thing, I view it as worth $5000 to me, but no one else will pay more than $2 so I feel insulted by them.

I had a work friend who bought things that depreciated (electronics, computers etc). He won't sell his old unused phones for $100 because he paid $500 and he feels he is getting ripped off. So instead of having $100 in his pocket, he keeps his unused phone in a bucket in his basement because its worth $100 to him to have that unusable piece of junk but the emotional win.

It's all about the single point transaction - what someone is willing to pay at the moment. And what it's worth to them.