[imwjl]

Originally Posted by Silly Moustache

I've been saying this for years (mostly on this forum) and most say I'm talking trash.

Of course there will be exceptions, and maybe the balance will be corrected - only those younger people with a combination of talent, ability and respect for hard work will become the musicians of the future.

Music, photography and so many other aspects of creativity and enjoyment have been over simplified by technology.

I remember Stefan Grossman telling me that he could buy Martin 40 series 00and 000 guitars up really cheap in the sixties because no-one wanted them - they wanted elecs or dreads.

In the '50s and '60s about the only guitars in the music shop windows in the UK and Europe were German made archtops because formerly - it was dance band music that set the demand in previous decades.

The boom in guitar playing has (really) been driven by the Baby boomers as and when they became suitably affluent.

The industry depended mainly on these.

Baby boomer years are (I'm told - 1946 to 1964. Frankly I'd put it more like 1945 to 1955ish but even now we are seeing signs of the glut that the OP rightly mentions.

Once, when buying a new Martin or Gibson guitar, you could reasonably tell your wife that it will appreciate over the next ten/twenty years, but apart from inflation, I don't think that is realistic any more.

If my wife can realise 2/3rds of the price of my "purchased used" collection, I'd be happy for her.

I'm currently watching a number of higher value instruments (Martins, Gibsons, Collings etc., on UK Ebay.... they aren't selling, being relisted continually.

Even if the last baby boomers were born in 1964 (by which time I was a gigging muso) they will reach their 70s by 2034.
I predict that there will be no market for 20th century flat-tops by then or even by 2020. (If there are any of us still on this little planet).

Two things you're forgetting.

1. A whole lot of WW II vets and women born early 1930s and before had kids into the early 1960s.
2. Demographics, supply and demand. Where the middle class is in a spectrum of shrinking through thriving.

A nice Martin except for some rare ones and most all Collings are pretty much common stuff for the truly wealthy. A whole lot of pre-owned custom stuff is not what a lot of the truly wealthy want.

I'll disagree on photography. One of my first jobs was being a darkroom technician and assistant at an old publishing firm and working with 8x10 and 4x5 cameras. Lighting and framing is still the same challenge even with my Canon bodies, L lenses and 3 wireless flash units. Earlier in the month I was working with someone who had a $6000 drone holding a tremendous camera and all the rules for framing, light and what's attractive still apply. It's like our 1930 Modal A Ford. Some aspects of a car are easier now but that's not the same as being a good driver.

Most people choose options that add convenience, safety and save time.

We do things that add convenience, safety and time to better accommodate the old fashioned parts of raising kids discussed here and so I get my own time with a guitar.